Verified performance

Immutable Signal outcomes

A public record of LikelyIQ snapshot probabilities, frozen Market-at-Signal benchmarks, and deterministic canonical settlements. This is historical evaluation—not a live market view.

Public settlement record

Score snapshots against the same outcomes.

LikelyIQ and the frozen Market-at-Signal benchmark are both scored against each resolved outcome. Current, closing, and later Signal probabilities are never substituted for these snapshots.

Public Signals

across 16 markets

Resolved

Scored Signals

Pending

No outcome recorded

Correction pending

Excluded from settled scores

Excluded

Not scored

Scored markets

Unique markets in Brier means

Paired Brier comparison

Lower is better. Both means use the same resolved Signal observations.

LikelyIQ Brier

—

Resolved snapshots only

Frozen market Brier

—

Same resolved snapshots

Observed advantage

—

Market Brier − LikelyIQ Brier

n = 0 resolved Signals across 0 unique markets. A positive advantage means LikelyIQ had the lower observed Brier score on this sample; it is not a claim of general accuracy.

How Brier scoring works

For each definitive binary outcome, Brier = (probability as a decimal − actual outcome)². YES is 1 and NO is 0. For example, a 20% forecast for a NO outcome scores (0.20 − 0)² = 0.040.

Important limits: Repeated Signals can share a settlement; events can be correlated; and early resolved samples can be small. Read these observed scores with their sample size, not as a guarantee or general-accuracy claim.

Category breakdown

Resolved snapshot comparisons grouped by the public Signal category.

Mean absolute error · —

Category	LikelyIQ Brier	Frozen market	Advantage
Business	—	—	—
Sports	—	—	—
Other	—	—	—

Public history

Signal snapshots and settlements

Pending and unresolved records remain visible. Generation, expiry, and final settlement are different times and are shown separately in UTC.

62 records

All Signals Resolved Pending Correction pending Excluded

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.3

Generated · 2026-10-30 20:08:09.934 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-31 20:08:09.886 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

20%

Frozen market

17%

Frozen IQ Gap

+3.0 pp

Confidence

33/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-30 20:08:10.710 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B4.8

Generated · 2026-10-30 19:08:00.434 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-31 19:08:00.366 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

12%

Frozen market

2.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+9.5 pp

Confidence

22/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-30 19:08:01.341 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2029 be above 2.5%?

KXNOMGDPGROWTH-30JAN28-T2.5

Generated · 2026-10-30 18:08:21.456 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-31 18:08:21.400 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

49%

Frozen market

88%

Frozen IQ Gap

-39.0 pp

Confidence

25/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-30 18:08:22.346 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B5.3

Generated · 2026-10-30 16:09:00.830 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-31 16:09:00.766 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

12%

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+10.0 pp

Confidence

22/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-30 16:09:02.310 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 5.5%?

KXNOMGDPGROWTH-37JAN28-T5.5

Generated · 2026-10-30 08:07:58.484 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-31 08:07:58.428 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

38%

Frozen market

28%

Frozen IQ Gap

+10.0 pp

Confidence

20/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-30 08:07:59.123 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 3.5%?

KXUSCPIYEAR-30FEB01-T3.5

Generated · 2026-10-29 20:07:37.875 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 20:07:37.805 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

48%

Frozen market

34.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+13.5 pp

Confidence

20/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 20:07:38.649 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 6.0%?

KXUSCPIYEAR-30FEB01-T6.0

Generated · 2026-10-29 18:07:44.230 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 18:07:44.162 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

25%

Frozen market

13%

Frozen IQ Gap

+12.0 pp

Confidence

35/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 18:07:45.014 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 4.0%?

KXUSCPIYEAR-30FEB01-T4.0

Generated · 2026-10-29 16:07:41.504 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 16:07:41.434 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

45%

Frozen market

26%

Frozen IQ Gap

+19.0 pp

Confidence

28/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 16:07:42.207 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2031?

KXGDPYEAR-31-B4.8

Generated · 2026-10-29 14:07:46.532 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 14:07:46.485 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+6.0 pp

Confidence

20/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 14:07:47.419 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2030?

KXGDPYEAR-30-B2.8

Generated · 2026-10-29 10:07:51.240 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 10:07:51.170 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

38%

Frozen market

12%

Frozen IQ Gap

+26.0 pp

Confidence

32/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 10:07:52.178 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.3

Generated · 2026-10-29 08:07:40.647 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 08:07:40.621 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

33%

Frozen market

17%

Frozen IQ Gap

+16.0 pp

Confidence

28/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 08:07:41.229 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B4.8

Generated · 2026-10-29 06:07:42.370 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 06:07:42.321 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

10%

Frozen market

2.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+7.5 pp

Confidence

25/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 06:07:43.072 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B5.3

Generated · 2026-10-29 04:07:38.640 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 04:07:38.583 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+5.0 pp

Confidence

25/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 04:07:39.349 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.8

Generated · 2026-10-29 02:07:46.472 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 02:07:46.420 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

22%

Frozen market

11.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+10.5 pp

Confidence

28/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 02:07:47.189 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 5.5%?

KXNOMGDPGROWTH-37JAN28-T5.5

Generated · 2026-10-29 00:07:46.027 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-30 00:07:45.975 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

42%

Frozen market

28%

Frozen IQ Gap

+14.0 pp

Confidence

30/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-29 00:07:46.914 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Will Mexico win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?

KXWC-30-MEX

Generated · 2026-10-28 00:36:46.601 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-29 00:36:46.561 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+2.0 pp

Confidence

22/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-28 00:36:47.512 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-28 00:35:31.981 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-29 00:35:31.943 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

30%

Frozen market

9.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+20.5 pp

Confidence

25/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-28 00:35:33.077 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2030?

KXGDPYEAR-30-B2.8

Generated · 2026-10-28 00:31:23.281 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-29 00:31:23.232 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

27%

Frozen market

12.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+14.5 pp

Confidence

25/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-28 00:31:24.256 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.8

Generated · 2026-10-28 00:27:18.995 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-29 00:27:18.948 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

38%

Frozen market

9.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+28.5 pp

Confidence

35/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-28 00:27:19.764 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2032?

KXGDPYEAR-32-B0.8

Generated · 2026-10-28 00:24:26.647 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-29 00:24:26.588 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

15%

Frozen market

1.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+13.5 pp

Confidence

20/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-28 00:24:27.397 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B5.3

Generated · 2026-10-28 00:23:05.451 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-29 00:23:05.371 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+6.0 pp

Confidence

30/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-28 00:23:06.333 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.3

Generated · 2026-10-27 08:07:40.644 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 08:07:40.597 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

25%

Frozen market

17%

Frozen IQ Gap

+8.0 pp

Confidence

22/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 08:07:41.320 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 3.5%?

KXUSCPIYEAR-30FEB01-T3.5

Generated · 2026-10-27 06:07:38.957 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 06:07:38.923 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

50%

Frozen market

34.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+15.5 pp

Confidence

30/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 06:07:39.461 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 6.0%?

KXUSCPIYEAR-30FEB01-T6.0

Generated · 2026-10-27 04:07:29.898 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 04:07:29.852 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

20%

Frozen market

13%

Frozen IQ Gap

+7.0 pp

Confidence

22/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 04:07:30.357 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2029 be above 4.0%?

KXUSCPIYEAR-30FEB01-T4.0

Generated · 2026-10-27 02:07:32.656 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 02:07:32.600 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

35%

Frozen market

26%

Frozen IQ Gap

+9.0 pp

Confidence

30/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 02:07:33.344 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B5.3

Generated · 2026-10-27 00:19:17.350 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 00:19:17.315 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

12%

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+10.0 pp

Confidence

20/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 00:19:18.168 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Will Mexico win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?

KXWC-30-MEX

Generated · 2026-10-27 00:17:40.551 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 00:17:40.504 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+3.0 pp

Confidence

25/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 00:17:41.564 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2032?

KXGDPYEAR-32-B0.8

Generated · 2026-10-27 00:13:27.239 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 00:13:27.207 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

10%

Frozen market

1.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+8.5 pp

Confidence

20/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 00:13:27.836 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2031?

KXGDPYEAR-31-B4.8

Generated · 2026-10-27 00:11:38.240 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 00:11:38.206 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

Frozen market

2.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+5.5 pp

Confidence

35/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 00:11:38.933 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 5.5%?

KXNOMGDPGROWTH-37JAN28-T5.5

Generated · 2026-10-27 00:07:48.666 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 00:07:48.615 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

45%

Frozen market

36%

Frozen IQ Gap

+9.0 pp

Confidence

22/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 00:07:49.360 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.8

Generated · 2026-10-27 00:04:20.447 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-28 00:04:20.401 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

38%

Frozen market

9.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+28.5 pp

Confidence

22/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-27 00:04:21.146 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2030?

KXGDPYEAR-30-B2.8

Generated · 2026-10-26 19:21:36.057 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-27 19:21:36.003 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

32%

Frozen market

14%

Frozen IQ Gap

+18.0 pp

Confidence

24/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-26 19:21:36.993 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B4.8

Generated · 2026-10-26 19:19:58.380 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-27 19:19:58.320 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

12%

Frozen market

2.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+9.5 pp

Confidence

22/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-26 19:19:59.196 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26DSWI-120126

Generated · 2026-10-26 19:16:55.283 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-27 19:16:55.197 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

35%

Frozen market

28.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+6.5 pp

Confidence

27/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-26 19:16:56.646 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-26 19:07:46.810 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-27 19:07:46.761 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

40%

Frozen market

9.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+30.5 pp

Confidence

35/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-26 19:07:47.842 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

BusinessPending settlement

GDP growth in 2029?

KXGDPYEAR-29-B2.8

Generated · 2026-10-25 21:28:23.195 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-26 21:28:23.127 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

23%

Frozen market

9.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+13.5 pp

Confidence

28/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-25 21:28:23.893 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-23 02:07:27.462 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-24 02:07:27.410 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

20%

Frozen market

65%

Frozen IQ Gap

-45.0 pp

Confidence

45/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-23 02:07:28.046 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26DSWI-120126

Generated · 2026-10-23 00:07:38.683 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-24 00:07:38.632 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

20%

Frozen market

10.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+9.5 pp

Confidence

3/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-23 00:07:39.539 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-21 08:07:36.152 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-22 08:07:36.104 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

30%

Frozen market

65%

Frozen IQ Gap

-35.0 pp

Confidence

22/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-21 08:07:36.809 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-20 12:07:33.581 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-21 12:07:33.522 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

22%

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+13.0 pp

Confidence

60/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-20 12:07:35.007 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-20 06:20:46.113 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-21 06:20:46.075 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

20%

Frozen market

65%

Frozen IQ Gap

-45.0 pp

Confidence

55/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-20 06:20:46.745 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26DSWI-120126

Generated · 2026-10-20 04:07:29.694 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-21 04:07:29.647 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

24%

Frozen market

12.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+11.5 pp

Confidence

55/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-20 04:07:30.803 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-19 08:07:34.865 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-20 08:07:34.792 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

30%

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+21.0 pp

Confidence

58/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-19 08:07:35.920 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-19 04:07:25.559 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-19 16:07:25.517 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

32%

Frozen market

66%

Frozen IQ Gap

-34.0 pp

Confidence

46/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-19 04:07:26.112 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26DSWI-120126

Generated · 2026-10-19 00:07:28.516 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-19 12:07:28.449 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

25%

Frozen market

13%

Frozen IQ Gap

+12.0 pp

Confidence

60/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-19 00:07:29.345 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-18 08:07:34.726 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-18 20:07:34.670 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

28%

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+19.0 pp

Confidence

6/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-18 08:07:35.657 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-18 00:07:24.542 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-18 12:07:24.446 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

20%

Frozen market

65%

Frozen IQ Gap

-45.0 pp

Confidence

63/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-18 00:07:25.176 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26DSWI-120126

Generated · 2026-10-17 08:07:38.847 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-17 20:07:38.795 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

24%

Frozen market

12.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+11.5 pp

Confidence

60/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-17 08:07:39.684 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-17 00:07:32.402 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-17 12:07:32.351 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

25%

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+16.0 pp

Confidence

6/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-17 00:07:33.404 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-16 08:07:44.231 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-16 20:07:44.153 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

12%

Frozen market

62.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

-50.5 pp

Confidence

6/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-16 08:07:45.107 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

Confidence describes the strength and consistency of evidence at Signal generation. Frozen IQ Gap is the difference between the stored LikelyIQ and Market-at-Signal snapshot probabilities. Neither is a new prediction, and neither uses live or closing market prices.