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GDP growth in 2029?

4.6 to 5.0

Market

2.5%

−1.5 vs prior

LikelyIQ

12%

Community

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IQ Gap

+10

Significant disagreement

Analytical disagreement, not a guaranteed edge.

Low confidence

Synchronized 4m ago7,927 total volume0 24h volume0 community calls

Probability history

MarketLikelyIQ

Evidence-backed analysis

Verified inputs and LikelyIQ interpretation are labeled separately.

Supporting evidence

LikelyIQ interpretation

BEA shows real GDP at +3.4% (Q3 2026 adv) and +2.2% (Q2 2026), below the 4.6%–5.0% band targeted for 2029.

2h ago

Supporting evidence

LikelyIQ interpretation

A report cites BEA’s advance estimate of 1.5% for Q2 2026, underscoring weaker readings in 2026.

2h ago

Supporting evidence

LikelyIQ interpretation

Given 2026 readings around 1.5%–3.4%, reaching 4.6%–5.0% in 2029 would require notable acceleration into a tight 0.5pp band.

2h ago

Opposing evidence

LikelyIQ interpretation

BEA’s Q3 2026 advance estimate rose to 3.4% from 2.2%, showing capacity for higher near-term growth than earlier in 2026.

2h ago

Opposing evidence

LikelyIQ interpretation

Observed quarter-to-quarter variability implies room for future outcomes that could include the 4.6%–5.0% band by 2029.

2h ago

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Answers grounded in the reviewed market evidence

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LikelyIQ Signal

Evidence-consistency checked · generated 2h ago

Low confidenceIQ GAP +10 · Significant disagreement

Estimated YES

12%

IQ Gap +10 · trigger 10 pts

Market at Signal generation 2.5%

Analysis summary

FORECAST: Estimated probability 12%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the United States real GDP growth in 2029 is between 4.6% to 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2030-02-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: The supplied evidence shows 2026 growth running near 2.2%–3.4% per BEA with some lower estimates reported (E3, E1), making the narrow 4.6%–5.0% 2029 outcome plausible but relatively unlikely.

Supporting

BEA shows real GDP at +3.4% (Q3 2026 adv) and +2.2% (Q2 2026), below the 4.6%–5.0% band targeted for 2029.
A report cites BEA’s advance estimate of 1.5% for Q2 2026, underscoring weaker readings in 2026.
Given 2026 readings around 1.5%–3.4%, reaching 4.6%–5.0% in 2029 would require notable acceleration into a tight 0.5pp band.

Opposing

BEA’s Q3 2026 advance estimate rose to 3.4% from 2.2%, showing capacity for higher near-term growth than earlier in 2026.
Observed quarter-to-quarter variability implies room for future outcomes that could include the 4.6%–5.0% band by 2029.

Key risks

• UNCERTAINTY: Policy, productivity, or shock-driven shifts by 2029 could move growth into or away from 4.6%–5.0%.
• UNCERTAINTY: The BEA advance estimate for 2029 could differ from later revisions, affecting the first-published figure used for resolution.
• UNCERTAINTY: Global conditions (trade, energy, geopolitics) could materially alter the U.S. growth path by 2029.

Assumptions

• ASSUMPTION: The resolution uses BEA’s first-published annual percent change for 2029 per the bound secondary rule.
• ASSUMPTION: Quarterly annualized readings in 2026 provide context but are not direct predictors of the 2029 annual figure.

Evidence considered

Sources are linked to the reviewed analysis snapshot.

Confidence 22/100

US Real GDP growth advance estimate slows to 1.5% in second quarter of 2026

[1] The Tribune · tier 3 · 7/30/2026

Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

[2] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · tier 1 · 10/30/2026

LikelyIQ estimates the exact market resolution criteria from a versioned evidence snapshot. Confidence reflects source quality, source diversity, recency, ambiguity, and consistency—not certainty. Model openai_compatible/gpt-5/likelyiq-analysis-v2-grounded; prompt likelyiq-analysis-v2-grounded; schema likelyiq-signal-v1.

View sources (1)Expand

GDP growth in 2029?

Official settlement source · 7/27/2026, 10:57:09 PM

Market data is attributed to kalshi; LikelyIQ analysis is labeled separately.