LikelyIQ generates independent probabilities, compares them with prediction markets, and shows where the two disagree.
Independent probabilities versus the market at Signal generation.
BEA-reported real GDP growth in 2026 showed modest, variable momentum, and the cited source highlights softness; inference: this mixed backdrop makes a >2.5% nominal 2029 annual change plausible but uncertain.
The supplied evidence shows 2026 growth running near 2.2%–3.4% per BEA with some lower estimates reported, making the narrow 4.6%–5.0% 2029 outcome plausible but relatively unlikely.
The supplied evidence shows recent BEA advance estimates in 2026 around 2–3% and media-cited 1.5% for Q2 2026, implying moderate momentum, while past instances like Q1 2021 reached 6.4%, keeping a non-zero chance for the narrow 5.1–5.5% band.
Confidence reflects the strength and consistency of available evidence, not the event probability.
Latest sportsbook consensus and quote age. This is market information, not a LikelyIQ prediction.
Starts Oct 30, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC
Starts Oct 30, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC
Starts Oct 30, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC
IQ Gap compares LikelyIQ's stored estimate with the market probability frozen when that Signal was generated. It is not a live-price claim.
Large gaps invite closer reading; they are not recommendations or guarantees.
LikelyIQ presents an independent probability beside a prediction-market benchmark.
The market probability is stored at Signal generation, so the comparison stays reproducible.
Open a Signal to review its public rationale, confidence, and underlying context.
LikelyIQ and the frozen Market-at-Signal benchmark are evaluated against the same recorded outcomes.
Settlement tracking is building. Scores appear only after definitive canonical outcomes are recorded; no substitute zero values are shown.
Brier scores are lower-is-better probability accuracy measures. Historical results are not a guarantee of future accuracy.
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