Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2029 be above 2.5%?
If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2029 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Analytical disagreement, not a guaranteed edge.
Probability history
Evidence-backed analysis
Verified inputs and LikelyIQ interpretation are labeled separately.
Supporting evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationBEA’s GDP page confirms ongoing official reporting and shows positive real growth in 2026 (Q3 +3.4%, Q2 +2.2%), indicating continued economic expansion.
Supporting evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationBEA-reported GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in 2026 Q1, reflecting moderate activity early in 2026.
Supporting evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationGiven mid-2020s real growth around low single digits (E8, E2), a nominal 2029 increase above 2.5% is plausible but uncertain pending price dynamics.
Opposing evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationAn advance estimate cited slowing real GDP to 1.5% in 2026 Q2, signaling softness during the mid-2020s.
Opposing evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationConsumer spending nearly stalled in 2026 Q1, suggesting fragile demand and downside risk to future growth momentum.
Opposing evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationMixed and volatile recent growth (E1, E2, E8) implies material risk that 2029 nominal annual change could land at or below 2.5%.
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LikelyIQ Signal
Evidence-consistency checked · generated 3h ago
FORECAST: Estimated probability 49%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2029 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2030-01-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E8 and E2, BEA-reported real GDP growth in 2026 showed modest, variable momentum, and E1 highlights softness; inference: this mixed backdrop makes a >2.5% nominal 2029 annual change plausible but uncertain (E8, E2, E1).
Supporting
- BEA’s GDP page confirms ongoing official reporting and shows positive real growth in 2026 (Q3 +3.4%, Q2 +2.2%), indicating continued economic expansion.
- BEA-reported GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in 2026 Q1, reflecting moderate activity early in 2026.
- Given mid-2020s real growth around low single digits (E8, E2), a nominal 2029 increase above 2.5% is plausible but uncertain pending price dynamics.
Opposing
- An advance estimate cited slowing real GDP to 1.5% in 2026 Q2, signaling softness during the mid-2020s.
- Consumer spending nearly stalled in 2026 Q1, suggesting fragile demand and downside risk to future growth momentum.
- Mixed and volatile recent growth (E1, E2, E8) implies material risk that 2029 nominal annual change could land at or below 2.5%.
Key risks
- • UNCERTAINTY: Inflation through 2029 could materially raise or lower nominal GDP growth relative to real activity.
- • UNCERTAINTY: Policy shifts, commodity shocks, or financial conditions could significantly alter late-2020s U.S. growth.
- • UNCERTAINTY: Productivity and labor-force trends by 2029 may deviate from mid-2020s patterns, impacting nominal growth.
Assumptions
- • ASSUMPTION: Mid-2020s GDP conditions provide limited but relevant context for late-2029 outcomes.
- • ASSUMPTION: The BEA advance annual value for 2029 will be the governing figure per the market’s secondary rule.
Evidence considered
Sources are linked to the reviewed analysis snapshot.
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Market data is attributed to kalshi; LikelyIQ analysis is labeled separately.