GDP growth in 2029?
2.1 to 2.5
Analytical disagreement, not a guaranteed edge.
Probability history
Evidence-backed analysis
Verified inputs and LikelyIQ interpretation are labeled separately.
Supporting evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationBEA reports Q2 2026 annualized real GDP growth at 2.2%, a value within the 2.1–2.5 range, showing such outcomes occur in official releases.
Supporting evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationQuarterly BEA readings spanning 2.2% to 3.4% in 2026 imply mid‑2% growth is plausible but not assured for future periods like 2029.
Opposing evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationBEA shows Q3 2026 annualized growth of 3.4%, outside the 2.1–2.5 band, illustrating frequent outcomes beyond the target range.
Opposing evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationDifferences between a Q2 2026 1.5% advance estimate (E1) and BEA’s posted values (E3) suggest estimate variability, raising risk of missing a narrow band in 2029.
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LikelyIQ Signal
Evidence-consistency checked · generated 1h ago
FORECAST: Estimated probability 20%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the United States real GDP growth in 2029 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2030-02-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E3, BEA shows quarterly annualized real GDP growth of 2.2% in Q2 2026 and 3.4% in Q3 2026, reflecting variability around the mid-2% area. E1 reported a 1.5% advance estimate for Q2 2026, underscoring dispersion between estimates and over time.
Supporting
- BEA reports Q2 2026 annualized real GDP growth at 2.2%, a value within the 2.1–2.5 range, showing such outcomes occur in official releases.
- Quarterly BEA readings spanning 2.2% to 3.4% in 2026 imply mid‑2% growth is plausible but not assured for future periods like 2029.
Opposing
- BEA shows Q3 2026 annualized growth of 3.4%, outside the 2.1–2.5 band, illustrating frequent outcomes beyond the target range.
- Differences between a Q2 2026 1.5% advance estimate (E1) and BEA’s posted values (E3) suggest estimate variability, raising risk of missing a narrow band in 2029.
Key risks
- • UNCERTAINTY: Macroeconomic shocks, policy changes, or external events through 2029 could shift growth meaningfully away from mid‑2% outcomes.
- • UNCERTAINTY: The advance estimate used for resolution could differ from later revisions, affecting whether the initial figure lands in the range.
Assumptions
- • ASSUMPTION: No structural break renders past variability in BEA growth estimates wholly irrelevant to 2029 outcomes.
- • ASSUMPTION: The effective resolution uses BEA’s first‑published annual percent change for 2029 as described in the bound rule.
Evidence considered
Sources are linked to the reviewed analysis snapshot.
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Market data is attributed to kalshi; LikelyIQ analysis is labeled separately.