Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 5.5%?
If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2036 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Analytical disagreement, not a guaranteed edge.
Probability history
Evidence-backed analysis
Verified inputs and LikelyIQ interpretation are labeled separately.
Supporting evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationBEA is the authoritative publisher of U.S. GDP statistics used for settlement, per its official GDP data portal.
Supporting evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationHigher inflation in 2036 could lift current-dollar GDP growth above 5.5% even with moderate real growth.
Supporting evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationA positive shock to real activity (e.g., productivity or investment) could push nominal growth above the threshold.
Opposing evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationSubdued inflation combined with moderate real growth would likely keep nominal GDP growth at or below 5.5%.
Opposing evidence
LikelyIQ interpretationA recessionary or slowdown scenario in 2036 could depress nominal GDP growth below 5.5%.
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Answers grounded in the reviewed market evidence
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LikelyIQ Signal
Evidence-consistency checked · generated 13h ago
FORECAST: Estimated probability 38%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2036 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2037-01-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E8, the BEA is the authoritative publisher of U.S. GDP statistics, but the provided evidence does not establish any 2036 outlook, so the estimate relies on broad uncertainty about future inflation and real growth.
Supporting
- BEA is the authoritative publisher of U.S. GDP statistics used for settlement, per its official GDP data portal.
- Higher inflation in 2036 could lift current-dollar GDP growth above 5.5% even with moderate real growth.
- A positive shock to real activity (e.g., productivity or investment) could push nominal growth above the threshold.
Opposing
- Subdued inflation combined with moderate real growth would likely keep nominal GDP growth at or below 5.5%.
- A recessionary or slowdown scenario in 2036 could depress nominal GDP growth below 5.5%.
Key risks
- • UNCERTAINTY: Inflation path through 2036 could materially deviate due to shocks (energy, supply chains, policy).
- • UNCERTAINTY: Real growth could be impacted by technology, demographics, or geopolitical developments.
- • UNCERTAINTY: Policy shifts (fiscal/monetary) may raise or restrain nominal growth into 2036.
- • UNCERTAINTY: Data revisions policies are fixed for resolution timing, but reported values may still surprise relative to expectations.
Assumptions
- • ASSUMPTION: The BEA’s advance 2036 annual current-dollar GDP percent change reported in the specified release will be the resolving figure per the bound rule.
- • ASSUMPTION: No extraordinary definitional change invalidates comparability of the BEA’s current-dollar GDP annual percent change for 2036.
Evidence considered
Sources are linked to the reviewed analysis snapshot.
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Market data is attributed to kalshi; LikelyIQ analysis is labeled separately.