Immutable Signal outcomes
A public record of LikelyIQ snapshot probabilities, frozen Market-at-Signal benchmarks, and deterministic canonical settlements. This is historical evaluation—not a live market view.
Score snapshots against the same outcomes.
LikelyIQ and the frozen Market-at-Signal benchmark are both scored against each resolved outcome. Current, closing, and later Signal probabilities are never substituted for these snapshots.
Scored Signals
No outcome recorded
Excluded from settled scores
Not scored
Unique markets in Brier means
Paired Brier comparison
Lower is better. Both means use the same resolved Signal observations.
Resolved snapshots only
Same resolved snapshots
Market Brier − LikelyIQ Brier
n = 0 resolved Signals across 0 unique markets. A positive advantage means LikelyIQ had the lower observed Brier score on this sample; it is not a claim of general accuracy.
How Brier scoring works
For each definitive binary outcome, Brier = (probability as a decimal − actual outcome)2. YES is 1 and NO is 0. For example, a 20% forecast for a NO outcome scores (0.20 − 0)2 = 0.040.
Category breakdown
Resolved snapshot comparisons grouped by the public Signal category.
| Category | Resolved | LikelyIQ Brier | Frozen market | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business | 0 | — | — | — |
| Sports | 0 | — | — | — |
| Other | 0 | — | — | — |
Signal snapshots and settlements
Pending and unresolved records remain visible. Generation, expiry, and final settlement are different times and are shown separately in UTC.
No excluded on this page
No substitute outcomes or scores are shown.
Confidence describes the strength and consistency of evidence at Signal generation. Frozen IQ Gap is the difference between the stored LikelyIQ and Market-at-Signal snapshot probabilities. Neither is a new prediction, and neither uses live or closing market prices.