Verified performance

Immutable Signal outcomes

A public record of LikelyIQ snapshot probabilities, frozen Market-at-Signal benchmarks, and deterministic canonical settlements. This is historical evaluation—not a live market view.

Public settlement record

Score snapshots against the same outcomes.

LikelyIQ and the frozen Market-at-Signal benchmark are both scored against each resolved outcome. Current, closing, and later Signal probabilities are never substituted for these snapshots.

Public Signals

across 16 markets

Resolved

Scored Signals

Pending

No outcome recorded

Correction pending

Excluded from settled scores

Excluded

Not scored

Scored markets

Unique markets in Brier means

Paired Brier comparison

Lower is better. Both means use the same resolved Signal observations.

LikelyIQ Brier

—

Resolved snapshots only

Frozen market Brier

—

Same resolved snapshots

Observed advantage

—

Market Brier − LikelyIQ Brier

n = 0 resolved Signals across 0 unique markets. A positive advantage means LikelyIQ had the lower observed Brier score on this sample; it is not a claim of general accuracy.

How Brier scoring works

For each definitive binary outcome, Brier = (probability as a decimal − actual outcome)². YES is 1 and NO is 0. For example, a 20% forecast for a NO outcome scores (0.20 − 0)² = 0.040.

Important limits: Repeated Signals can share a settlement; events can be correlated; and early resolved samples can be small. Read these observed scores with their sample size, not as a guarantee or general-accuracy claim.

Category breakdown

Resolved snapshot comparisons grouped by the public Signal category.

Mean absolute error · —

Category	LikelyIQ Brier	Frozen market	Advantage
Business	—	—	—
Sports	—	—	—
Other	—	—	—

Public history

Signal snapshots and settlements

Pending and unresolved records remain visible. Generation, expiry, and final settlement are different times and are shown separately in UTC.

62 records

All Signals Resolved Pending Correction pending Excluded

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-16 00:07:46.667 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-16 12:07:46.564 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

35%

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+26.0 pp

Confidence

6/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-16 00:07:47.918 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-15 04:07:32.616 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-15 16:07:32.567 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

15%

Frozen market

64.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

-49.5 pp

Confidence

6/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-15 04:07:33.177 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26DSWI-120126

Generated · 2026-10-15 00:07:34.385 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-15 12:07:34.344 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

24%

Frozen market

13%

Frozen IQ Gap

+11.0 pp

Confidence

62/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-15 00:07:35.419 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-14 08:07:44.044 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-14 20:07:43.997 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

22%

Frozen market

9.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+12.5 pp

Confidence

62/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-14 08:07:45.071 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-14 00:07:37.131 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-14 12:07:37.071 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

22%

Frozen market

63%

Frozen IQ Gap

-41.0 pp

Confidence

65/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-14 00:07:37.859 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26DSWI-120126

Generated · 2026-10-13 08:07:45.010 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-13 20:07:44.962 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

28%

Frozen market

13%

Frozen IQ Gap

+15.0 pp

Confidence

58/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-13 08:07:45.880 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-13 04:07:53.601 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-13 16:07:53.556 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

25%

Frozen market

Frozen IQ Gap

+16.0 pp

Confidence

6/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-13 04:07:54.582 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-12 08:07:35.467 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-12 20:07:35.421 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

30%

Frozen market

66%

Frozen IQ Gap

-36.0 pp

Confidence

60/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-12 08:07:36.033 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Dabo Swinney out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26DSWI-120126

Generated · 2026-10-12 04:07:28.804 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-12 16:07:28.783 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

24%

Frozen market

13%

Frozen IQ Gap

+11.0 pp

Confidence

3/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-12 04:07:29.491 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-11 12:07:26.329 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-12 00:07:26.297 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

28%

Frozen market

10%

Frozen IQ Gap

+18.0 pp

Confidence

60/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-11 12:07:27.039 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

SportsPending settlement

Mike Norvell out before Dec 1, 2026

KXNCAAFCOACHLEAVE-26MNOR-120126

Generated · 2026-10-11 04:07:25.781 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-11 16:07:25.751 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

Frozen market

63%

Frozen IQ Gap

-54.0 pp

Confidence

6/100

Low

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-11 04:07:26.280 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

OtherPending settlement

Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?

KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-27JAN01

Generated · 2026-10-02 00:07:41.422 UTC

Expires · 2026-10-02 12:07:41.378 UTC

LikelyIQ snapshot

18%

Frozen market

11.5%

Frozen IQ Gap

+6.5 pp

Confidence

60/100

Medium

No outcome or Brier score is shown until a definitive canonical settlement is recorded. Expiry is distinct from settlement.

Published · 2026-10-02 00:07:42.662 UTC · Resolution ingested · —Canonical settlement source unavailable

Confidence describes the strength and consistency of evidence at Signal generation. Frozen IQ Gap is the difference between the stored LikelyIQ and Market-at-Signal snapshot probabilities. Neither is a new prediction, and neither uses live or closing market prices.