Signals

FORECAST: Estimated probability 12%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the United States real GDP growth in 2031 is between 4.6% to 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2032-02-29T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E3, recent quarterly real GDP growth rates in 2026 were 3.4% (Q3, advance) and 2.2% (Q2), suggesting moderate momentum below the 4.6%–5.0% annual target, while E2 shows past episodes of stronger growth, indicating the range is feasible but not likely.

Generated 2m ago · Low 20/100 · 2 cited sources

FORECAST: Estimated probability 49%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2029 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2030-01-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E8 and E2, BEA-reported real GDP growth in 2026 showed modest, variable momentum, and E1 highlights softness; inference: this mixed backdrop makes a >2.5% nominal 2029 annual change plausible but uncertain (E8, E2, E1).

Generated 4h ago · Low 25/100 · 3 cited sources

FORECAST: Estimated probability 12%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the United States real GDP growth in 2029 is between 5.1% to 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2030-02-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: The supplied evidence shows recent BEA advance estimates in 2026 around 2–3% and media-cited 1.5% for Q2 2026, implying moderate momentum, while past instances like Q1 2021 reached 6.4%, keeping a non-zero chance for the narrow 5.1–5.5% band (E3, E1, E2).

Generated 6h ago · Low 22/100 · 3 cited sources

FORECAST: Estimated probability 12%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the United States real GDP growth in 2029 is between 4.6% to 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2030-02-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: The supplied evidence shows 2026 growth running near 2.2%–3.4% per BEA with some lower estimates reported (E3, E1), making the narrow 4.6%–5.0% 2029 outcome plausible but relatively unlikely.

Generated 3h ago · Low 22/100 · 2 cited sources

FORECAST: Estimated probability 20%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the United States real GDP growth in 2029 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2030-02-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E3, BEA shows quarterly annualized real GDP growth of 2.2% in Q2 2026 and 3.4% in Q3 2026, reflecting variability around the mid-2% area. E1 reported a 1.5% advance estimate for Q2 2026, underscoring dispersion between estimates and over time.

Generated 2h ago · Low 33/100 · 2 cited sources

FORECAST: Estimated probability 38%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2036 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2037-01-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E8, the BEA is the authoritative publisher of U.S. GDP statistics, but the provided evidence does not establish any 2036 outlook, so the estimate relies on broad uncertainty about future inflation and real growth.

Generated 14h ago · Low 20/100 · 1 cited sources