Signals

FORECAST: Estimated probability 49%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2029 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2030-01-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E8 and E2, BEA-reported real GDP growth in 2026 showed modest, variable momentum, and E1 highlights softness; inference: this mixed backdrop makes a >2.5% nominal 2029 annual change plausible but uncertain (E8, E2, E1).

Generated 4h ago · Low 25/100 · 3 cited sources

FORECAST: Estimated probability 38%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2036 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2037-01-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E8, the BEA is the authoritative publisher of U.S. GDP statistics, but the provided evidence does not establish any 2036 outlook, so the estimate relies on broad uncertainty about future inflation and real growth.

Generated 14h ago · Low 20/100 · 1 cited sources