Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Live market data is available. No verified LikelyIQ Signal is currently published for this market.
Probability history
Market Movement
Factual provider price and activity changes; no causal claim is implied.
Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 2.5 points lower from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 248.
Source updated 204d ago
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LikelyIQ Signal
Independent model output has not been reviewed and published for this live market.
Live market data is available. No verified LikelyIQ Signal is currently published for this market.
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