Will Meta's $25 billion New Mexico penalty be cut on appeal?
If the New Mexico Court of Appeals, the New Mexico Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court reduces, vacates or reverses, in whole or in part, the roughly $25 billion civil penalty imposed on Meta in the district court's October 21, 2026 order, including as later amended or reentered by the district court in State of New Mexico v. Facebook, Inc., No. D-101-CV-202100132 (N.M. First Jud. Dist. Ct.), or any appeal thereof before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Probability history
Market Movement
Factual provider price and activity changes; no causal claim is implied.
Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 1.5 points higher from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Source updated 8d ago
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