Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Itamar Ben-Gvir is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Itamar Ben-Gvir is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Live market data is available. No verified LikelyIQ Signal is currently published for this market.
Probability history
Market Movement
Factual provider price and activity changes; no causal claim is implied.
Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 9.5 points lower from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Source updated 21d ago
Ask LikelyIQ
Answers grounded in the reviewed market evidence
LikelyIQ provides informational analysis and probabilistic estimates. Outcomes are never guaranteed.
LikelyIQ Signal
Independent model output has not been reviewed and published for this live market.
Live market data is available. No verified LikelyIQ Signal is currently published for this market.
View sources (1)Expand
Market data is attributed to kalshi; LikelyIQ analysis is labeled separately.