Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum before 2030?
If the Republic of Ireland agrees to or announces a formal government decision to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
LikelyIQ automatically analyzes eligible markets. A Signal appears after evidence and verification requirements are met.
Probability history
Market Movement
Factual provider price and activity changes; no causal claim is implied.
Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 4.5 points lower from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Source updated 47d ago
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