Compare Market, LikelyIQ, IQ Gap, movement, and community context at a glance.
Market Movement: Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 0.5 points lower from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Signal summary: FORECAST: Estimated probability 8%; confidence Low; resolution event "If the United States real GDP growth in 2029 is between 5.1% to 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes."; cutoff 2030-02-28T13:29:00.000Z (UTC); event-time rule "The official report, reference period, and revision treatment specified in the bound Kalshi secondary rule."; rationale: According to E3, BEA’s advance estimate shows real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in Q3 2026, while E1 reports a weaker 1.5% annual rate in Q2 2026, indicating moderate/variable momentum. According to E2, GDP grew at a 6.4% annual rate in Q1 2021, showing that >5% growth can occur but is not implied for 2029 by recent 2026 readings.
Market Movement: Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 0.5 points lower from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Market Movement: Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 0.5 points lower from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Market Movement: Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 2.5 points lower from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Market Movement: Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 1.5 points higher from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Market Movement: Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 0.5 points lower from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Market Movement: Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 1.5 points lower from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
Market Movement: Kalshi's latest observed probability moved 3.5 points higher from its prior recorded price; 24-hour volume is 0.
